York Region and Canada are experiencing the rise of a new COVID-19 variant, but York’s medical officer of health says it does not yet warrant behavioural change for most.
Omicron subvariant Eg.5., also known as Eris, has become more dominant in recent weeks, with the World Health Organization (WHO) considering it a variant of interest this month. The variant has been detected in dozens of countries, and WHO said it could create a rise in overall cases and become a dominant strain in some countries or even globally.
But Dr. Barry Pakes said it is largely not materially different than other Omicron variants of COVID-19, except for being slightly more immune evasive.
“I wouldn’t say it’s something … that individuals need to worry about generally,” Pakes said, but added that with respect to public health, “it is something we are watching.”
COVID-19 statistics have generally trended downward but did see a small spike this month. The regional non-normalized wastewater signal hit a low of 18.3 July 17 but sits at 48.9 as of Aug. 2, representing several hundred more estimated weekly cases. That is still well below the peaks of earlier in the pandemic, with this year's highest point coming in January when the wastewater signal hit 287.2 in York Region.
Pakes said the latest spike has not yet led to an increase in hospitalizations as it has in the United States and some other countries. Over the summer at least, the new variant does not warrant a change in behaviour from the public, he said.
“The general public is going to have to think about their own risk and how they’re interacting,” he said.
Things may change in the fall when COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses tend to be circulating more. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization has recommended people hold off until the fall to get COVID-19 booster doses.
“Although seasonality of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has not been established, other respiratory viruses such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) typically increase in the fall and winter months,” NACI said in a June update. “COVID-19 vaccination can help increase protection and reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the health system while these other viruses are circulating."
Those boosters are discretionary for the general public, Pakes said, with less emphasis being put on it for non-high-risk individuals. But he added boosters will still be a good idea with essentially no risk.
“It is really a recommendation, a pretty solidly evidenced recommendation for people who are fragile and vulnerable,” Pakes said. “And for all those people in the population who are not, it is definitely a good idea.”
It is difficult to be sure how much COVID-19 could increase come the fall, Pakes said.
“We really don’t know,” Pakes said, adding that the timeframe for that increase could also vary. “We certainly need to be prepared for that.”
The pandemic has thrown plenty of curve balls, Pakes said. But the health-care system is bracing itself for any increase in the virus and hospitalizations.
“It is unclear what the fall will bring, but we’re preparing for it. I think that’s the main thing,” he said. “We’re doing anything we can to make sure we’re going to be able to deliver those vaccines and deliver some messages.”
